The Decline of the Assad Regime: How an Alawite Dynasty Governed a Predominantly Sunni Nation for Decades
The decades-long rule over Syria by the Assad family has come to an end as rebel forces breached the city of Damascus, forcing its President Bashar al-Assad to make a quick exit. In fact, this marks the end of a regime which ruled the nation for well over 50 years.
Alawite family Assads have been ruling a primarily Sunni nation since Hafez al-Assad’s rise to power in 1970; however, their stronghold was brought to an abrupt close.
Hafez al-Assad: The Engineer of Modern Syria
Hafez al-Assad seized power on 13 November 1970 through a coup. His rise to the top marked a new beginning for the country, which had just experienced a succession of coups within its post-independence history as a state. As an Alawite minority, Hafez used the positions of commander of the Syrian Air Force and defence minister to create a loyal network in the military and the Ba’ath Party. His divide-and-rule policies on Syria’s ethnic and sectarian fault lines further weakened the state institutions, creating only a fragile basis for his successors. He promoted the Alawite minority into powerful positions both in the military and government and played Syrian sectarian and tribal politics against himself to neutralize potential threats in consolidating power.
When Syria became independent in 1946, the Alawites left their centuries-long historical past of being an outcast minority to become the politically dominant force and the backbone of military rule in the country. As 12-15% of the pre-war population of the country, the Alawites managed to establish themselves within the Assad regime basically through patronage they earned in such a regime.
Altering his decision, Hafez al-Assad had wished that he transfer his powers on to his eldest son; however after his death in 1994 his youngest succeeded him. Bashar Al- Assad with no previous governmental experience had become the new President after the death of his father in 2000 where he won a referendum garnering him 97% of votes.
First, hope was high that Bashar would reform Syria’s hard-line, authoritarian system. This hope was soon to be dashed. Bashar kept the inner circle of his father’s and continued the regime’s autocratic governance.
There, of course, is power concentration of a close and tight circle of elites-primarily the family itself and closest friends-and within its ranks, Bashar’s brother Maher was a family representative, but his influence, so to speak, reached through military and security organs; then there is the economy whose figures dominated a part of Syrian riches, like Bashar’s cousin Rami Makhlouf, for example.
Brutality had characterized the regime, including a mass murder campaign in 1982 known as the Hama massacre when Hafez’s forces suppressed an uprising of the Muslim Brotherhood and slaughtered tens of thousands. The regime of Bashar continued the repressive legacy, leading to the uprising in 2011, during the Arab Spring. Peaceful protests grew into a catastrophic civil war when the regime answered them with force, killing hundreds of thousands and displacing millions.
Under Bashar, economic mismanagement, corruption, and increased inequality led to growing discontent. The severe drought near the end of the 2000s widened rural poverty and made people migrate into urban centers.
For a “shadow state” structure that functioned outside formal institutions where real power was exercised, the survival of the Assad regime rested on the Syrian republic. This web of overlapping security agencies, patronage networks, and mutual surveillance effectively safeguarded the regime but left Syria’s governance opaque and unaccountable.
From calling for modest reforms to its origins in humble beginnings, the 2011 uprising inspired by the Arab Spring mushroomed into full-scale civil war. More than 13 years on, Syria is still in the throes of turmoil. A new wave of renewed violence thrusts the issue back into global headlines, 2024.
The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), headed by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, led the main offensive against the regime. Although it has sought to rebrand itself, HTS is still listed as a terrorist organization by the UN and the US. The rebel forces pushed forward fast, taking all the cities of importance and, finally, Damascus, compelling Bashar al-Assad to run away from the city, which means the end of the Assad dynasty.
